・これは、2015年4月26日にジャーナリスト向けに発行したサイエンス・アラートです。

・記事の引用は自由ですが、末尾の注意書きもご覧下さい。

＜海外SMC発サイエンス・アラート＞

ネパール中部でおきた大地震について：海外専門家コメント 

4月25日、ネパール中部でマグニチュード（M）7.8の大地震が発生しました。27日（日本時間）付けのロイター通信によると、カトマンズや周辺地域で1910人の死亡が確認されたほか、負傷者数は4625人に上り、今後さらに増加する恐れがあるとのことです。米地質調査所（USGS）は当初、今回の地震をM7.9と推定していましたが、その後、M7.8に修正しています。この件についての海外専門家コメントをお送りします。

USGSへのリンク

http://www.usgs.gov/blogs/features/usgs_top_story/magnitude-7-8-earthquake-in-nepal/?from=title

翻訳は迅速さを優先しております。ご利用の際には必ず原文をご確認ください。

David A Rothery, Professor of Planetary Geosciences

 The Open University

今回の地震は大規模で震源域が浅いものでした。カトマンズの建物は耐震化が進み、比較的残されているようです。一方、ネパールは耐震化が進んでいません。ただし、学校が休みの土曜日に発生したことが、不幸中の幸いでした。地震後の6時間半でM5.0を超える余震が9回あり、崩壊した建物に閉じ込められている生存者への影響が心配されます。今後も、最大でM6程の余震がおきるかもしれません。エベレストのベースキャンプなどで雪崩がおきているとも聞いています。

原文

The magnitude of the quake was been revised downwards from 7.9 to 7.8, and the depth revised from 11 km to 15 km. These are fairly trivial changes. The earthquake was still large and with a shallow source.
In Kathmandu the newer buildings tend to have survived relatively well. Maybe seismic-resilient building codes have been adhered to. It seems to be old buildings that fared worse. There are ways to ‘retrofit’ old buildings to make them withstand earthquakes, but these are unlikely to be affordable in a poor country such as Nepal.  It is probably a good thing that this happened on a Saturday when Nepal’s schools are closed, because school buildings (which tend to have large areas of unsupported roof) often fare particularly badly. However there are reports of school-children hurt during today’s quake in W Bengal.
Examples of major school trajedies: 2008 Sichuan quake http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Sichuan_schools_corruption_scandal
In Venezuela two schools, built in contravention of the local seismic building code, collapsed as a result of a M 7.0 earthquake on 9 July 1997 killing 46 students. In Algeria a M 6.8 quake on 21 May 2003 left 122 schools in need of rebuilding. School house tragedy was avoided in this case because the earthquake happened after the end of the school day, though 2,287 other people died. However, a M 6.4 earthquake in eastern Turkey on 1 May 2003 brought down the roof of a school dormitory, killing many children as they slept. A subsequent survey found that none of the local schools accorded with the 1998 Turkish seismic code, and the blame for this was placed on lack of resources to supervise building works, and on poorly trained architects and engineers.
 
 
There were nine aftershocks exceeding magnitude 5.0 in the six and a half hours after the initial quake. These are dangerous for survivors still trapped in collapsed buildings, and put rescuers at risk too. Smaller aftershocks will probably continue for several days, but it can be hoped that there will be few in any above magnitude 6.
 
We have by now all heard of the avalanche near Everest base camp. The biggest issue that I am still wondering about is the extent to which landslides may have affected remote settlements. For example, the 2005 M 7.6 Kashmir earthquake caused several thousand landslides, one of which obliterated the village of Dandbeh killed a thousand people.

http://pubs.usgs.gov/of/2006/1052/pdf/ofr-2006-1052.pdf  

If this situation is repeated in Nepal, the death toll could be far higher that that reported from Kathmandu alone."